求全球金融危机的英文报告，要2000字

the global financial cr****
maurice r.greenberg
(mr.greenberg ** chairman of the nixon center and chairman and ceo of american international group.)
foreword
the global financial cr**** has clearly become a leading foreign policy priority of the clinton admin**tration.few people are as qualified to evaluate the cr****,its consequences for the united states,and possible solutions as maurice r.greenberg.as the chairman and ceo of american international group,an insurance and financial services firm that does business in 130 countries,and a former chairman of the federal reserve bank of new york,mr.greenberg has enormous first-hand knowledge of the world economy.
mr.greenberg,who ** also chairman of the nixon center,originally presented h** highly **rmative and thoughtful remarks during the october 7,1998 session of the study group on america as the sole superpower,chaired by senator john mccain(r-az).organized under the auspices of the nixon center,the study group ** a **all,top-level bipart**an panel which includes key members of congress,former senior officials – among them former secretaries of state and defense and four national security adv**ors – business leaders,and prominent academics.its purpose ** to assess u.s.priorities,opportunities,and constraints in the new vastly different post-cold war environment.mr.greenberg’s ** makes an important contribution to th** objective.
dimitri k.simes
president
the r**k of global recession
the current global financial cr**** ** among the greatest challenges to the world economy since the end of world war ii.unlike past financial cr**es,which were confined to particular regions,the current financial contagion ** quickly spreading across continents.unless action ** taken in the next few months to shore up faltering countries and restore confidence in the global economy,the world will face a deep and prolonged recession.
g-7 countries,in particular the united states,were slow to realize the scope and seriousness of the cr****,which began in thailand in the summer of 1997.for example,at the 1997 g-7 summit in denver,japan proposed the establ**hment of a$100 billion asian fund to help deal with the cr****.the u.s.,however,opposed the plan for fear it would undermine the imf’s limited rescue program and out of concern over the implications of a japan-led effort.only after u.s.stock markets experienced a sharp downturn th** past summer did americans wake up to the cr****.though economic and political leaders throughout the world now acknowledge the seriousness of the situation,a combination of politically weak **s and lack of consensus has prevented quick and dec**ive action on the part of the industrialized nations.
the imf ** still critical,but its focus must change
with the global economy teetering on the brink,now ** not the time to abandon ex**ting international institutions in search of new,unproven mechani**s.aid through the international monetary fund remains the best means to stabilize financial markets.however,the approach taken by the imf to date has failed to turn the tide.strict conditions imposed by the fund h**e forced recipient countries to ra**e interest rates and lower budget deficits even as they face recession.in many cases,looser f**cal and monetary policies are needed to increase demand and stimulate growth.
the imf was created in 1945 with a m**sion to stabilize currencies,not to restructure economies.to fight th** present cr****,the imf must get out of the business of managing entire economies and instead concentrate on reducing exchange rate fluctuations.conditions for recipient countries should focus narrowly on banking transparency.countries in need of imf loans should be expected to adopt internationally accepted accounting standards,pass adequate bankruptcy leg**lation,and produce a clear and thorough accounting of foreign debt.in other aspects of f**cal,trade,and monetary policy,however,recipients should be given latitude to set their own policies to maintain growth.
the united states must continue to contribute its share to the imf.by withholding funds,the u.s.only reduces its influence and its ability to convince the imf to change its tactics.congressional approval of the$18 billion replen**hment should encourage other nations to follow suit.the u.s.contribution of$18 billion will thus mobilize$90 billion,a substantial sum the imf should use solely for currency stabilization.japan has rev**ed its proposal for an asia-based stabilization fund,th** time pledging$30 billion instead of the original$100 billion.japan,however,should be encouraged to make th** money **ailable to the imf through the general agreements to borrow(gab)so the imf will remain the main d**tributor of funds.
small countries need relief from currency speculation
smaller countries like thailand are unable to defend themselves against international currency speculators,many of whom control billions of dollars.managers of huge hedge funds often sell short simultaneously on a country’s currency and stock markets.when **aller economies are the target of such speculation,these short positions can become self-fulfilling prophecies.china and india h**e both limited their exposure to the financial turmoil because their currencies are not freely convertible and thus not subject to speculation.while shorting of the dollar or the pound,even by the largest currency speculators,would h**e little effect on britain or the u.s.,**aller economies h**e no means to defend themselves.
unrestricted speculation ** wo**ng to kill free-market thinking in many developing and newly developed nations.some countries should be allowed to outlaw certain types of short selling and to place some controls on short-term portfolio investments.there ** nothing wrong with imposing penalties on investors who buy in and then pull out of a market on the same day.in th** sense,the hong kong **’s recent intervention in the stock market ** justified.such measures do not violate free market principles when the aim ** to combat certain kinds of speculative trading.
japan:both problem and solution
the world financial cr**** will not improve until japan,the world’s second largest economy and asia’s biggest market,returns to the path of economic growth.though tokyo’s offers of financial aid to its nei**ors are welcome,japan can only give real help to asia by boosting its own domestic demand.japan’s lingering economic mala**e has exacerbated currency fluctuations.the yen has gone from?0/$a few years ago to?47 th** past august.in the week of october 5 alone,the yen suddenly strengthened from?34 to?17.such fluctuation by a major world currency has gr**e consequences.th** volatility makes it impossible for businesses to do any meaningful planning and ** delaying asia’s recovery.the problems in the japanese economy thus jeopardize everyone’s economic security,not just japan’s.
perhaps no other industrialized country(with the obvious exception of russia and some of the emerging markets **ing major transitions)has suffered from worse political paralys** than japan.despite years of stagnant growth,japan’s leaders h**e been unable clean up their country’s decrepit banks.on october 3,bank of japan governor masaru hayami told treasury secretary robert e.rubin and federal reserve chairman alan greenspan that many of japan’s banks do not meet the 8%capital reserve standard set by the bank of international settlements(b**).if true,th** means that japanese banks do not h**e adequate capital reserves to operate internationally.
united states officials should privately,but firmly,ins**t that the japanese ** guarantee that their banks meet the 8%b** standard or japanese banks will no longer be allowed to operate in america.mr.hayami’s statement appears to h**e been a deliberate move to get the united states to put pressure on japan’s politicians to deal with the banking cr****.a hard-line stance by washington would be useful because it would give japanese leaders the political cover to initiate tough reforms.once the necessary reform measures pass the diet,including a bankruptcy law,then the japanese public may be willing to allow the ** to use some of the money in japan’s huge postal s**ings system to help the banks.
leadership needed,not cure-alls
though the present cr**** ** often referred to as the"financial contagion,"in reality it ** not a single d**ease with a single cure.each country has its own unique set of difficulties and the solutions for each country will be different.south korea,for example,** still running a healthy trade surplus and enjoys$43 billion in foreign currency reserves,money which could be used to purchase the stock of ailing companies.th** would help to revitalize the companies by providing capital at the rate of the day and would provide incentives for foreign banks to convert debt into equity.in thailand,meanwhile,the ** can later d**pose of the shares they own in an orderly fashion in the market.the thai ** has much lower foreign exchange reserves.banks are still paralyzed,but signs are emerging that they are ra**ing new local funds.thai companies are h**ing difficulty getting trade financing.malaysia,indonesia,and russia are now facing deep political and social problems that cannot be solved through financial means alone.
a global lack of investor confidence ** at the heart of the current problem.once investor confidence ** lost,it ** very hard to restore.time should not be wasted debating what new institutions or global financial regimes are needed for the future.rather,all energy must be spent finding solutions to the present situation.both the industrialized nations and the imf must not dictate overly strict conditions for aid that will reduce demand and economic growth in the recipient countries.the g-7 members will need to maintain demand in their own economies.a lowering of interest ...