为什么我们仍然无视**的崛起？是傲慢自大

正文翻译:martin jacques, author of a bestseller on china, asks why the west continues to approach the r**e of the new global powerhouse with a closed mind. we obsess over details of the race for the white house, yet give scant regard to the battle to replace china's current leadership. if we fail to pay heed to the political and economic shift of gr**ity, we will be sidelined by h**tory马丁.雅克，**畅销书的作者，不解为什么西方**还要用旧的方式来看待这个新崛起的**。我们着迷于研究白宫的一切，对于**现今的领先地位缺少重视。如果我们不注意**和经济重心的转移，我们将被历史淘汰。 h**tory ** passing our country and our continent by. once we were the centre of the world, the place from where power, ideas and the future emanated. if we drew a map of the world, europe was at its centre. that was how it was for 200 years. no more. the world ** tilting on its ax** in even more dramatic style than when europe was on the r**e. we are witnessing the greatest changes the world has seen for more than two centuries. we are barely aware of the fact. and therein lies the problem 那些属于我们**和**的辉煌的日子，已一去不复返。曾经，我们**是世界的中心，是政权，创意和未来的发源地。如果我们画一张世界地图，欧洲就在中心。200年来，一直都是这样。然而，时过境迁。世界正在更戏剧化倾斜它的重心，比起欧洲崛起的那时候。我们正亲眼目睹世界的巨大变化，这是前两百多年来都不曾发生过的。我们几乎不了解真相。这就是问题所在。 i vidly recall when the first edition of my book when china rules the world was publ**hed almost three years ago. at the many talks i g**e, i showed a goldman sachs chart that projected that the chinese economy would overtake the us economy in size in 2027. invariably someone would point out th** was only a projection, that the future was never an extrapolation of the past, that it was most unlikely the forecast would come to pass and certainly not in th** time frame. no one suggested that the projection underestimated the date, even though the western financial cr**** was already almost a year old.我清楚的记得三年前，我的第一本书《当**统治世界》出版时的情景。在我所作很多场演讲中，我在高盛投资公司图表预算出，在2027年，**的经济将赶超美国。肯定会有人觉得这只是一种预测，未来不可能是过去的外推，预测很可能不会发生，肯定不会发生在这个时间段。没人会觉得预测过时，尽管西方**的经济危机已过去一年了。 the latest econom**t projection suggests china will overtake america in 2018. so why are we – and europe – so far behind the curve? why do we ins**t on living in a world that was rather than **? why are we so out of touch with both the speed and import of china's r**e?最新的《经济时报》预算指出，在2018年，**的经济将赶超美国。那么，为什么我们**，乃至整个欧洲，在这经济转型期落后了呢？为什么我们一直活在过去而不面对当下的世界？为什么我们无法在速度和出口方面，与正在崛起的**接轨呢？our ascendancy of the past two centuries – first europe and then the us – has bred a western-centric mentality: the west ** the fount of all w**dom. we think of ourselves as open-minded but our sense of superiority has closed our minds. we never entertained the idea that china could surpass the us. backward, lacking democracy, bereft of enlightenment principles, the product of a very different h**tory, it was not western. so how could it? we were the universal model that everyone else had to embrace to succeed. the only form of modern**ation that worked was western**ation. china would inevitably fail: the project was unsustainable. by ins**ting on seeing china through a western pr**m, we refused to understand china in its own terms. our arrogance bred ignorance: we were not even curious过去的两百年，我们一直处于支配地位，先是欧洲，接下来是美国，这种形势给人一种以西方为中心的心态，认为西方是智慧之源。我们自认为思想开明，然而正是这种优越感让我们的思维定势。我们从不认为**会超越美国。**落后，没有**，没有启蒙原则，是不同历史的产物，跟西方不一样。那它是怎么做到崛起的呢？我们过去是想成功的**的模范。现代化唯一成功的方式便是西方化。**会失败，这是不可避免的。这个计划是是不可持续的。如果我们坚持用西方的棱镜来看待**，我们将无法理解**的模式。我们的傲慢自大会产生无知，我们甚至算不上好奇。china **, indeed, in so many ways, not like the west. it ** not even primarily a nation state but a civil**ation state. whereas the west has primarily been shaped by its experience of nation, china has been moulded by its sense of civil**ation. th** helps to explain why the chinese place such a huge emphas** on unity and stability, their reverence for the state and their embrace of ideas such as "one country, two systems" in hong kong. similarly, unlike europe, china never sought to acquire overseas colonies but establ**hed a tribute system in east asia. the chinese state bears a fundamentally different relationship to society compared with any western state. the state ** seen as an intimate, as a member of the family, rather than, as in western d**course, a problem, a threat, or even the enemy. for the chinese, the state ** the embodiment of its civil**ation: as such, it could not be more important, it lies at the heart of the chinese pysche.的确，**在很多方面有别于西方。**不是一个民族**，而是文明**。西方**大多形成于民族，而**则是形成于文明。这能帮助我们理解为什么**那么强调团结和稳定，比如他们敬畏**，在**实行**的政策，这些都能够看出来。类似的，**从不会像西方**那样在海外拓展殖民地，而是在东亚建立纳贡体制。**和社会的关系，在根本上，有别于任何西方**。**像是人民的至交，像是家庭成员中的一员，而不是想西方演讲中所说的那样，是一个问题，一种威胁，或者是敌人。对于**人来说，**是文明的体现，正因为如此，在**人民的心中，它极其之重要。it ** impossible to understand or make sense of china through a western pr**m. as china becomes a great power and, over the next two decades, steadily usurps america as the dominant global power, we will no longer h**e any alternative but to abandon our western parochial**m and seek to understand china on its own terms. but the shift in mindset that faces us ** colossal.用西方的思维模式是不可能理解和了解**的，随着**越来越强大，在未来二十年，**将取代美国成为全球有影响力的**，我们将别无选择只能放弃我们的狭隘主义，寻找理解**的方法。我们面临的这种思维模式的转变是巨大的。what does it mean to be a civil**ation state? what was the tributary system and how will it shape china's future beh**iour? why ** china's idea and experience of race so different from ours? just as every non-western country was compelled during the 19th and 20th centuries to understand the west in its own terms, it ** now our turn to make sense of a country so different from our own.一个文明的**意味着什么呢？到底什么是纳贡体制，它将使**成为什么样的**？为什么**人的想法和人种的经历和我们的相差甚远呢？在19世纪和20世纪，每个非西方的**被迫用西方的方式来理解我们，如今，我们也得象当初的他们一样，要用非西方的方式去理解**。it will be a herculean task: we always look west, hardly ever east. when bo xilai, a leading contender for one of china's top positions, was d**m**sed more than a week ago, it received little attention in our media even though it was the most important event of its kind for more than two decades. compare, if you will, the attention, devoted by the brit**h media – notably the bbc and quality news**s – to the republican primaries with that given to china in the build-up to the commun**t party congress in november, when president hu jintao and premier wen jiabao will be replaced by xi jinping and li keqiang. the latter ** of far greater consequence yet the coverage ** paltry in compar**on. 这将是一个很困难的任务，我们一直关注西方，很少关注东方。一周多前，当**，**一个高职位的竞选者，被解雇时，没有引起我们媒体的重视，尽管这是这二十年来最重大的事件了。相比较，英国的媒体，如bbc和有质量的一些报纸，则致力于报道**十一月份**党的大选，**和**将代替**和**成为新一任的**和**。后者更加重要，相比较，覆盖面不值得一提。we h**e an enormous china deficit that urgently needs addressing. it ** replicated throughout our culture; there has been much talk of promoting mandarin in our schools and yet, in both the state and private sectors, pitifully few offer it as a serious option. our economy exhibits the same morbid symptoms: britain exports more to ireland than it does to china, india, russia and brazil combined. unless we address these questions, we face the prospect of being sidelined by h**tory.我们在经济方面，有很大的**赤字需要填补。在文化方面也是一样，迄今为止，已经说了很多次要在公立和私立学校推广普通话，可是很遗憾并没有引起重视。我们**的经济呈现出同样的病态，英国向爱尔兰的出口量起向**，印度，俄罗斯，巴西这四个**的出口总量还要多。除非我们解决这些问题，不然我们将面临被历史遗弃的命运。china's remarkable economic growth started in 1978, but as its economy was then only a 20th the size of america's, its global impact was minuscule. by the turn of the century, however, after more than two decades of double-digit growth, the chinese economy was more like a quarter of the size of america's, with the consequence that its global effect was of an entirely different order. the story, moreover, was no longer simply about china because by then its r**e had begun to transform the world. only with the financial cr**** in 2008, however, did the west finally begin to wake up to the implications.**非凡的经济增长始于1978年，不过那时总量只有美国的二十分之一，它的全球影响极其小。然在世纪之交，经过二十年的增长，**的经济总量已经达到美国的四分之一，它在国际的影响力也完全不一样了。**的崛起已不仅仅是影响到**，更在转变着整个世界。2008年的经济危机，才使得西方**被唤醒。although countless commentators speak lazily of the global financial cr****, th** ** a m**nomer. a v**it to beijing will soon d**pel the **. the place ** brimming with energy, elan, confidence and brio. while the west ** mired in austerity and stagnation, with a psychology to match, china ** riding an extraordinary w**e of optim**m. in 2010, according to a pew poll, 91% of chinese felt good about their country's economy compared with 24% in the us and 20% in britain. while most western economies are still smaller than they were before 2008, the chinese economy has been growing in the region of 9-10% a year. that ** why it will overtake the us almost a decade earlier than previously predicted.即使有无数的评论者在回答全球经济危机时，表现出懒洋洋的状态，这是用词不当。只要去趟北京，答案马上见分晓。北京充满生机活力，自信满满。然而西方**则是到处弥漫着萧条甚至停滞不前的状态，从心理学的态度来看，**呈现出非同寻常的乐观。2010年，根据**测验，91%的**人看好**的经济，而相比较，只有24%的美国人和20%的英国人对本国的经济抱有信心。当大多数的西方**经济增长小于2008年时，**的经济却以每年9-10%的增长速度在增长，这就是为什么**会比预测的提早十年赶超美国的原因。2008 ushered in a new era, the beginning of a chinese world economic order. until recently the us largely shaped global**ation but now china ** increasingly assuming that role. its most dramatic expression ** trade. china will shortly become the world's largest trading nation. it imports huge amounts of natural resources and exports a massive volume of manufactured goods: in 2011, it overtook the us to become the world's largest producer of manufactured goods, a position america had previously held for 110 years. in 1990, there was hardly a country in the world for which china was its chief trading partner. by 2000, there were a few, but nearly all were in east asia. by 2010 the l**t stretched around the world, including japan, south africa, australia, chile, brazil, india, pak**tan, the us and egypt. imagine how long the l**t will be in 2020.2008年引来了一个新的时代，**经济的新纪元。直到最近美国才开始形成经济全球化，然而**正在不断更好地扮演这个角色。它最成功的部分便是贸易。**将慢慢变成世界上最大的贸易国。它进口大量的自然资源并出口大量的制造业产品。2011年，**就取代美国成为世界最大的成品制造国，这个地位美国拥有了110年了。1990年，世界上几乎没有一个**把**列为最主要的贸易伙伴。到2000年，只有少数**和**贸易，而且大多数都集中在东亚。到2010年，**已经和世界很多**有贸易往来了，比如日本，南非，澳大利亚，智利，巴西，印度，巴基斯坦，美国还有埃及，想想看，到2020年，**将和多少**贸易啊，贸易的**名单得有多长啊。china ** rapidly emerging as a great financial power. in 2009 and 2010 the china development bank and the china exim bank – which i would guess the great majority of observer readers h**e never even heard of – lent more to the developing world than the world bank. just as the rothschilds funded much of europe's industrial**ation in the 19th century, so these two banks are now doing the same on a far larger canvas, namely the entire developing world, compr**ing 85% of the world's population. meanwhile, in late 2008, china began making the renminbi, hitherto a currency that circulated only in china, **ailable for the settlement of trade. the h**c has predicted that by 2013-15 half of china's trade with the developing world (which constitutes more than half of china's total trade) will be paid for in renminbi. it ** the first stage in the process by which the renminbi will replace the dollar as the world's dominant currency.**正在快速成为经济强国，2009年到2010年，**开发银行和**进出口银行借给发展**家的钱比世界银行的还要多，这两个银行我相信大多数《观察者》的读者都没听说过吧。就像十九世纪的罗思柴尔德银行，积存了欧洲大多数的工业化成果一样，这两个银行现在做着类似的事情，控制着整个发展**家，占世界人口的85%。2008年底，**开始大量制造人民币，这个本只在**流通的货币，现也在国际市场贸易结算中出现了。汇分银行预测到，到2013年或是2015年，**和大多数发展**家的贸易将使用人民币（这个数占到**贸易总数的一半）。这是人民币取代美元成为世界主要货币走出的第一步。the centre of gr**ity of the global economy ** remorselessly shifting from the developed to the developing world. china ** the main player and the outcome will be the rapidly declining influence of the developed world and the reconstitution of all major global institutions, notably the international monetary fund and the world bank, to reflect th**.全球经济的重心正在残酷的从发展**转移到发展**家。**是最主要的扮演者，这结果将使发展**快速失去在世界的影响力，尤其是国际货币基金和世界银行，能反映出这种趋势。pause for a moment and think what it feels like to be in beijing these days. the place ** on fire. it ** alive with argument and debate. a country growing at 10% a year ** constantly throwing up huge and novel problems that require response and solution. it ** a far cry from britain mired in stagnation, where debate rarely ever breaks new ground and for the most part ** backdated. in contrast, china ** not only remaking itself with extraordinary speed, but ** also remaking the world. beijing resembles london in 1850 or washington in 1950, but on an epic scale. it ** the most interesting and stimulating city in the world.沉思片刻，想想北京这些天会是怎样的呢。这个地方正处在热闹中，到处是辩论和争论。一个**正以10%的增长速度增长，不断出现大的，异常的问题需要回应和解决。评论翻译:dadsarmy25 march 2012 12:30amwe think of ourselves as open-minded but our sense of superiority has closed our minds. we never entertained the idea that china could surpass the us.i've been telling people for 2 or 3 years that the biggest world economy ** china. they look at me kind of strangely. but in a way it already ** (potential). it's been quite obvious for 10 years or more it's going to happen. i would trace the turning point to hong kong 1997.引用“我们自认为思想开明，然而正是这种优越感让我们的思维定势。我们从不认为**会超越美国。”我一直都跟人说，说了两三年了，世界上最大的经济体是**。那些人听我说这些话时很奇怪地看着我。但在某种程度上，它已经是了（潜能）。很明显，再过个十来年，这些都会成为现实。我认为转折点是1997年**回归。 robert925 march 2012 12:32amwhy do we ignore them, because we are scared and, like children, feel that if we ignore them they will go away? i think it was napoleon who called china a sleeping tiger, which should be left und**turbed. the tiger ** wide awake and quietly on the prowl! i just pray they do not one day treat th** nation as badly as we treated them in the past - opium wars?为什么我们忽略了他们，因为我们很害怕，难道我们像孩子一样，觉得如果闭上眼睛，他们就不在眼前了？拿破仑称**为一只沉睡的老虎，还没有被打扰到的老虎。现在老虎醒来了，在安静地踱来踱去！我只想祈祷他们将来有一天不会像我们曾对待他们那样对待我们，嗯，当年的**战争。（译注：拿破仑把**比作一只沉睡的狮子，这位英国网友记错为老虎） michaellinla25 march 2012 12:39amin the 1980s japan was buying everything not bolted down and look what happened.my money's on brazil.在上世纪80年代，日本买了所有东西，却无法吞下，看看后来怎么样了。我**巴西。 birdincedar25 march 2012 12:53amin n.america we celebrate individual**m, narc**s**m and consumer**m unlike anywhere else, the china story cuts deep into all three of these character**tics so rather than address it we ignore or deny it or d**tract ourselves with political, media or sports entertainment. when the earth revolves around "you" in various senses of the word why pay attention to "them"fast forward 25 years, when th** shift has occurred we (n.americans) will be the last to honestly acknowledge it - rather our patriotic songs will louder than ever, our commercials for get rich quick schemes, newfangled gadgets and the latest hip sitcoms will convince us everything ** just fine. eventually even th** will cease to work and the new worldview will be plain to see, even here.我们不像其它地方，在北美，我们崇尚个人主义、自我陶醉和消费主义，而**抑制这三样，我们用**、媒体、体育娱乐来转移我们自己的注意力，忽视和否认现实。当整个地球都用各种字眼围绕着“你”，为什么还要去关注“他们”？再过25年，当逆转发生时，我们（北美人）将是最后一个知道的――当然，那时，我们会大声歌唱爱国歌曲，我们的快速致富的广告、新潮玩意和喜剧将会催眠我们，让我们觉得一切都还好。等到最后，这些都不管用了，所有的一切都清楚明了展现在眼前。 joburger825 march 2012 12:53ami think mostly people find it difficult to relate to them - we all know in a common sense way, that they will one day take over as the power nation. the question for me ** how will they manage their growth and will th** cause global prosperity or will it mean domestic revolution for their politics?interesting d**cussion.我认为大多数的人都觉得很难跟他们扯上关系――常识上我们都知道，他们终有一天会作为一个强大的**接管世界。我的问题是，他们会怎么样来管理这个世界，如何让全球繁荣？还是说，他们会爆发国内**？有很趣的讨论话题。 carrotsrus25 march 2012 2:05amresponse to barciad, 25 march 2012 12:46amh**e never/don??t ignore china, but like barcaid h**e similar concerns and probably a whole heap more. i actually think that jacques ** jumping the judgement on th** one - although only everso slightly - my view give another 5 years we??ll be in a better situation to gauge whether china about to overtake usa economy etc. but thanks for th** article - a boring saturday evening - so th** interesting diversion.回复barciad：从来没有忽视**，也不会忽视**，但我跟barciad担心的一样，甚至我还想到更多。我其实是在想，jacques（译注：文章作者）轻轻地跳过了对这个的判断。我的意见是再等5年看看，那时来**能否超越美国经济等等。感谢这篇文章，在这个无聊的周六晚上，这是一个很有趣的消遣。 jivemi25 march 2012 2:07amarrogance? perhaps frivolity ** a better word...傲慢？也许用“轻率”这个词会比较好… freego25 march 2012 2:07amth** article reads like an advert. life ** not so simple. the usa in particular ** doing everything it can to trip china up and keep it subject to us needs.but then yes the us ** the bad guy and china will r**e. the first because of a shocking piratical hubr** and the second because of a cultural predilection for self critic**m as pointed out in the article. we need to recogn**e both of these things to minim**e the damage the usa and its lap dog england are presently wreaking under cover of the western media blackout and bias.at one level the solution ** simple. westerners need to become intimate with the chinese. for th** the westerner has to change. the chinese h**e already. they ha 20210311